Projecting the Pride: What the numbers say about Hofstra’s season thus far
With their non-conference schedule now complete, the Hofstra men’s basketball team sits a game above five hundred with a 7-6 record. Looking at their record alone, it’s tough to say which direction the Pride is headed as they get set to open play against the rest of the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) starting on Thursday night at the University of Delaware. After beginning the season with four straight wins, the program’s best start in more than two decades, Hofstra embarked on a nine-game road trip that spanned the continent, during which they went 3-6 as the toll of injuries and jet lag proved greater with each passing day. At this point, it feels like Speedy Claxton and the Pride are back at square one with a lot to figure out.
To decipher which version of this team is to be expected the rest of this year, let’s take a deeper look at the advanced numbers and examine what aspects of the game Hofstra excels at, what they struggle with and what can be done to fix those issues as the season continues to unfold.
From the eye test alone, it’s clear that the Pride plays a fast-paced brand of basketball that favors quick perimeter scoring and outside shooting, and the numbers certainly back up that notion. Hofstra currently holds a KenPom adjusted tempo rating of 70, which sits marginally above the Division I average of 68. This is primarily due to the Pride’s average offensive possession taking just under 16 seconds before getting a shot off, which is much shorter than the national average of 18 seconds.
Hofstra thrives on generating quick looks off pick-and-roll concepts and utilizes their abundance of quickness and athleticism. More often than not, the Pride will deploy four guards on the floor, all of whom can knock down their shots from deep. Claxton’s small ball lineups can be difficult to contain on the perimeter for larger and less athletic teams, which opens up the floor for the Pride to shoot a barrage of three-pointers. In fact, over 40% of the Pride’s field goal attempts are of the three-point variety, while they score 36% of their points from behind the arc. Hofstra’s fast-paced offense has mostly been effective this season, as the Pride ranks 80th nationally and second among CAA teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. However, this style of play has perhaps rendered them one-dimensional, as KenPom ranks the Pride as the most offense-dependent team in the CAA due to a sharp contrast between their offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.
In each of Hofstra’s six losses this season, it’s clear that the team’s ineptitude in the rebounding department has undoubtedly been their undoing. Opponents have managed to out-rebound the Pride in 10 of their 12 games this season and have bested the Pride on the boards by an average of 13 rebounds per game. In a 19-point blowout loss to top-ranked Purdue, the Pride surrendered a season-high 43 rebounds. The Saint Mary’s Gaels also dominated the boards, grabbing 13 more boards in a 76-48 loss for the Pride. Without having a strong presence on the glass, Hofstra has suffered from a lack of second-chance points, averaging just 6.8 per game, the least among CAA teams and 350th in the nation.
Rebounding has been the Pride’s glaring weakness all season. (Graph by Dylan Brett)
Hofstra’s lackluster rebounding numbers can be attributed to their heavy reliance on zone defense. Their signature 2-3 zone makes it much harder to find a man to box out on the perimeter. However, as much as there is that can be stated about schemes and stats, the simple scapegoat for Hofstra’s rebounding problem is their glaring lack of size on the interior. In an era of college basketball that is dominated by powerful seven-footers and versatile stretch bigs, Hofstra’s tallest starter is senior forward Nelson Boachie-Yiadom, who stands just 6-foot-8 and weighs 218 pounds. 11 of Hofstra’s 12 opponents this season have had a starter taller than Boachie-Yiadom, and have consequently dominated the Pride on the glass.
So, with these factors in mind, what do the numbers have to say about what lies ahead for the Pride for the rest of this season? Let’s start with KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin (AdjEM), one of the most popular statistics used for evaluating teams, which grades teams based on how efficient and effective they are on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. Hofstra holds an AdjEM of +2.35, placing them 138th nationally and fourth among CAA teams in terms of total efficiency. That number is largely weighed down by their struggles on the defensive end of the floor, as the Pride ranks 80th nationally in offensive efficiency, while their defensive efficiency is 225th.
The Pride is the fourth most efficient team in the CAA by AdjEM, but relies the most on its offense, according to Kenpom.com (Graph by Dylan Brett)
However, strength of schedule is also included in the formula, and a rigorous non-conference slate which ranks 25th nationally has elevated that number for the Pride. Teams hold an average offensive efficiency rating of 104.8 against the Pride, a number that would be good enough to rank among the top 50 offenses in college basketball, and a collective AdjEM of +6.91, higher than that of any other CAA team.
As for the CAA foes that Hofstra will encounter in the coming months, teams such as Charleston, UNC Wilmington and Towson have all seen their AdjEM ratings skyrocket ahead of the Pride due to their more balanced styles of play, as well as sound defensive metrics.
Hofstra has played themselves to a precarious point in their season, with a myriad of questions looming ahead. Overall, something as complex and prolonged as a college basketball season can be challenging to assess, but advanced analysis and statistical data can help organize the chaos. With an arduous slate of conference matchups ahead, numbers suggest the Pride will need to find a more balanced approach to their game and do so sooner rather than later if they wish to cut down the nets in March.
Photo Courtesy of Hofstra Athletics/Art Pittman
