Former CIA analyst discusses the Ukraine conflict

Hofstra University’s International Science Lecture Series hosts a panel discussing the Russia-Ukraine war as the conflict continues. // Photo Courtesy of Artem Kniaz

Former CIA analyst Ray McGovern visited Hofstra University on Thursday, Oct. 12, for a lecture and discussion on the Russia-Ukraine war at the Guthart Cultural Center Theater. The lecture was hosted as part of Hofstra University’s International Science Lecture Series, in collaboration with the Hofstra Cultural Center and the Center for Civic Engagement’s Institute for Peace Studies. With commentary from Carolyn Eisenberg, a professor of U.S. history and American foreign policy, the lecture was held to discuss how the war began and where it is heading.

“What I’m going to do here is adduce some facts,” McGovern said at the beginning of his lecture. His focus began on the political foundation that introduced the tensions for this conflict, specifically the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the 1949 alliance between the United States and Western European Nations currently supplying arms and aid to Ukraine. The lecture also focused on the United States’ expansionary efforts to include more Eastern European nations in the NATO strategic alliance.

“When a major power like the United States, or Russia, feels an existential threat, they do what’s necessary to remove the existential threat,” McGovern said.

McGovern argued that this expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe was an existential threat to Russia. As a result, McGovern said that NATO had effectively cut Russia off from any sort of cooperation.

“We have driven Russia into China’s arms,” McGovern said. “There used to be a triangular relationship … Russia, China and [the] United States. It used to be like an equilateral triangle. Now, it’s an isosceles triangle, and the U.S. is at the short end of the stick.”

“Russia-Ukraine, as the guest speaker and former CIA analyst mentioned, is a difficult topic and there were many factors including the expansion of NATO that led Russia to feel threatened,” said John Walter, a senior history major. “I hope for and support Ukraine, but I worry what might come from the war when it does end. We all should consider this war and everything surrounding it.”

Following McGovern’s lecture, Eisenberg joined the discussion by providing more historical context while also addressing the future of the conflict.

“It’s not so much how did we get to this place, but really, what are the Russians doing in Ukraine? That has really shaped the conversation,” Eisenberg said.

She continued by saying that historically, NATO has been on the offensive in terms of its expansionary measures, and as a result, the Russians needed to respond.

“The Russians didn’t create a military alliance in Europe until six years later,” Eisenberg said. Her argument mainly stemmed from the idea that the creation of NATO was provocative: prior to this, there was hope for a semi-united Europe. “If you are going to create a military alliance, it’s provocative. It’s not just defensive.”

McGovern ended the event by answering some questions from the audience, as well as a question that Professor Eisenberg posed: “Where do we go from here?”

“Russia has already won the war. If that puts me in Putin’s pocket, so be it. Those are the facts,” McGovern said. “[Ukraine] is out of people, and they’re out of ammunition ... There’s not going to be any peace negotiations until the United States recognizes it has a choice between escalating to nuclear weapons or finally doing a deal – which leaves large parts of Ukraine under Russian control. That’s what scares me.”

“I think the most important takeaway from this lecture is that the situation in Ukraine is nuanced,” said Elijah Fischer, a freshman public policy and public service major who said that his perspective on this conflict changed as a result of the lecture. “As an American, my original perspective was that Russia was just evil. I see now that the situation is more complicated, but it is still hard to believe that they are in the right.”