By Johannes SortoCONTRIBUTOR
The immediate aftermath of the New Hampshire primary greatly impacted three Republican candidates.
The first was Donald Trump, who was in desperate need of a win after his disappointing loss in Iowa. Had Trump also lost in New Hampshire, the public would largely consider his campaign a joke. However, Trump had a comfortable victory that brought legitimacy to his campaign and made him the Republican Party’s undeniable frontrunner.
New Hampshire was also important for Ohio Governor John Kasich who put all his chips in on The Granite State. While a second place finish was enough for Kasich to keep his campaign alive for now, the chance of him actually winning the nomination remains slim to none. Kasich gambled by skipping South Carolina and Nevada, and choosing to focus on Michigan and northeastern states that vote later in March. Kasich’s current goal is to get through March 1, after which he will be in friendlier territory.
Lastly, Marco Rubio was also greatly affected by the results of New Hampshire. Unlike the previously mentioned candidates, however, Rubio stock dropped dramatically due to a horrific debate performance largely caused by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Luckily for Rubio and his supporters, the campaign may have rebounded in South Carolina with a second place finish. Rubio has received a series of endorsements from prominent politicians in the state, including South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Rubio is also greatly benefiting from his campaign manager Terry Sullivan who has an extensive career in South Carolina. Add all this together and you got the perfect conditions for a comeback.
Looking forward, there are two more key dates that will decide who will win the Republican nomination. The first is Super Tuesday, otherwise known as the SEC primary, which will take place on March 1. Because most of the states that are voting are southern states, this will largely decide the fate of both Cruz and Trump. Whoever wins the most states on March 1 will likely move on to the final round of the race.
As for the establishment race between Rubio and Kasich, the key date is March 15. On this day Florida will hold its primary, which will likely decide which candidate will stay and which will go.
Another key state voting on March 15 is Kasich’s home state of Ohio. Kasich will need to win Ohio and a number of other key Midwestern states, including Michigan and Illinois. If Kasich loses either to Trump or Rubio, the governor will be pushed to drop out.
After March 15 we will likely see only two relevant candidates in the Republican race, and the establishment candidate may have the upper hand. Right now, states are awarding delegates proportionally, but after March 15 it moves to a “winner take all” system.
The majority of states after March 15 are far more moderate and much friendlier terrain for an establishment candidate. However, this has been the most unpredictable election in decades, and anything can happen, including a brokered convention.
Johannes Sorto is the president of the Republicans of Hofstra University.