By Johannes Sorto
Contributor
President Obama decided to visit Cuba several weeks ago after normalizing relations with the communist government. The president believes that isolating Cuba has not been successful and argues that opening up a relationship will bring real change.
Although President Obama certainly has good intentions, his actions will likely strengthen the Cuban government. There are several flaws in his strategy and historical precedents provide a glimpse of what Cuba may become in the future.
There is an assumption by those on the left that the embargo has not been working at all. This assumption cannot be further from the truth.
Liberals seem to have forgotten that Fidel Castro stepped down in 2006. Expecting Fidel Castro to change his economic beliefs is the equivalent of trying to change Stalin or Mao’s views. No matter what we do, we cannot change the views of these radicals; neither economic sanctions nor diplomacy can work.
Coincidentally though, when his brother Raúl Castro took over, he implemented economic reforms that allowed some citizens to own businesses and property. Raúl Castro is much more likely to make reforms than Fidel Castro because Raúl is not the original leader of the revolution. Whoever takes over after Raúl will be even more likely to further liberalize because they see the damage that the embargo did.
Another flaw in Obama normalizing relations with Cuba is that the vast majority of money Americans will be spending in Cuba will be going to the Cuban government, because the government still owns most industries. This will only strengthen the Cuban government and encourage them to believe that their communist system is working.
Another false assumption President Obama makes is that American tourists will be able to engage with the Cuban people and inspire them to demand more rights, which will then lead to democratization. There are several obvious flaws with this.
The first is that every other country is currently able to visit Cuba, including democratic ones. If these tourists cannot convince Cubans to start a movement, how can Americans?
Another fundamental flaw with this strategy is that American tourists are not going to be visiting residential areas. They will be in tourist areas like Havana and will have few interactions with regular Cubans.
Lastly, most Americans do not speak Spanish, so even if they wanted to have a deep political discussion with Cuban citizens, they wouldn’t be able to.
It is also important not to forget the fact that the Cuban government has a track record of arresting political protestors on a seemingly daily basis. President Obama is either completely unaware of these obvious problems, or has decided to ignore this in a futile attempt to change Cuba.
If we go based on history, the future of Cuba looks very similar to that of China. The Castro brothers are looking at China very closely and are attempting to mirror their economic system, which is partly why they have slightly liberalized their economy. Keep in mind that China’s economic success is due in part to the fact that the United States opened up its economy and diplomatic relations towards the communist state in hopes that a more open dialogue would push the country to become a democracy.
Today, the Chinese communist government is stronger than ever and China has become such a great threat that politicians have been campaigning on how to stop them for the last eight years.
If Cuba plays their cards right they could become the next China, thanks to President Obama.
Johannes Sorto is the president of the Hofstra Republicans.
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