By Bob Bonett
AFC East Breakdown: Just Win, Baby
1) Jets (8-5)
Fire Mangini? That seems to be the $64,000 question. The reality is that the Jets head coach is loved by team owner Woody Johnson and GM Mike Tannenbaum, and they've already guaranteed Mangini a job through next year. But take a look at exactly what Mangini has done this year. Despite the front office signing Kris Jenkins, Calvin Pace and Alan Faneca, and trading for Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre, the Mangini-led Jets will probably miss the playoffs if they lose one of their final three games. It's clear that something is rotten in the state of New York, and I have a hunch it starts with "Mangenius" and his second-rate coaching staff.
Looking ahead, the Jets host Buffalo this Sunday, the first of three must-win games. The Bills are as cold as any team in the NFL; unfortunately, New York isn't burning up the gridiron. The Jets should be pretty heavy favorites ... but that was the case against Denver and San Fran, and we know how that turned out.
2) Dolphins (8-5)
Miami's win over the Bills wasn't pretty, least pretty of all being Ronnie Brown's continued struggles out of the backfield. But remember, of the Dolphins' eight wins this year, just one has come by more than 10 points: a 38-13 whooping over New England way back in Week 3.
The one thing Bill Parcells probably could have done without was Joey Porter's speaking out in support of Plaxico Burress. I'm not condemning Porter for defending his friend, or defending players' rights to carry guns. But I think the bigger issue is that the 'Phins are firmly entrenched in a playoff run, and any distraction could doom a team only three wins from a divisional crown - just a year removed from a 1-15 season.
Miami has San Francisco and Kansas City coming up before the winner-takes-all matchup against the Jets in Week 17. With Mike Singletary doing one heck of a job at the helm, the 49ers aren't going to go down without a fight. But Parcells and head coach Tony Sparano will make sure Miami doesn't lay an egg in a must-win game.
3) Patriots (8-5)
While the Jets and 'Phins are just three wins away from winning the East, the Pats need some serious help. With their 5-5 conference record, they're a game behind New York and Miami. New England needs each team to lose at least once, and win out, in order to take the division.
Should the Patriots and one of their two counterparts finish with the same record, New England may still be sitting on the sidelines come January. Baltimore and Indianapolis are both red-hot, and both stand at 9-4. Fortunately for the Pats, the Ravens and Colts have brutal schedules down the stretch, while Matt Cassel and Co. have three very-winnable contests against Oakland, 'Zona and Buffalo.
Expect New England to finish at 11-5; don't assume that'll be enough to return to the postseason.
4) Bills (6-7)
I'll leave the obscure stats to Elias, but I doubt any team in NFL history has followed a 54-point output the way Buffalo has in terms of utter offensive inefficiency. Since their 23-point win against the Chiefs in Week 12, Buffalo managed a grand total of two field goals against the 'Niners and Dolphins. In fact, things got so bad for the Bills last week in Canada that JP LOSMAN led the team in rushing. Ouch.
Buffalo finishes up with three games - road trips versus the Jets and Broncos, and then a season-ending home game against New England - that they will probably lose. Incredibly, after a 5-1 start, the playoffs are out of the question for Dick Jauron and his crew at this point. The Bills are now gunning to keep Jauron from losing his job.
NFC East Breakdown: David Tops Goliath
1) Giants (11-2)
Those who said Plaxico Burress wouldn't be missed - including this writer - were proven wrong last week. Key dropped passes by Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith reminded one and all that as much of a problem Plax may be off the field, his status as Eli Manning's elite target is undiminished.
Standing in-between Big Blue and a division crown is a single win - a win that would also get the Giants a first-round bye in the NFL playoffs. Unfortunately, none of the G-Men's three remaining games are cupcakes, especially considering the Burress and Antonio Pierce distractions. A trip to Dallas, home game against Carolina, and then a season-ender at the Metrodome feature a trio of three teams that have their sights set on the playoffs - and perhaps even the Super Bowl.
Over the stretch run, we'll learn a lot from Eli that we haven't learned already; not in his play - that's a given - but his ability to bring stability to a troubled locker room and team.
2) Cowboys (8-5)
Just as the Giants wrap up the season with three brutal games, Dallas also faces three tough-as-nails opponents; after welcoming the Giants to Texas Stadium, the Ravens come to Big D, followed by a trip to Philly to finish the year.
Remember back to when Dallas was rolling along at 3-0? At the time, the Tony Romo/Terrell Owens-led 'Boys were the consensus favorite to win the NFC. But a lot has happened since then. Now, twelve weeks later, with Romo back on the starting lineup and on the same page as TO, the team is ready to step up, reel off three straight wins, and surprise everybody by making a run in the playoffs.
3) Eagles (7-5-1)
I've written like an Eagles homer all year, being an unabashed partisan in my coverage of this team. However, as the weeks drag on it's impossible, without a crystal ball, to predict whether Donovan McNabb will turn in a Pro Bowl-worthy performance; whether Andy Reid will show up to the game with a plan; and/or whether Brian Westbrook will be featured in the offense.
This past Sunday, the Eagles definitely got lucky with a ton of Giants miscues. Still, McNabb played well, and Westbrook turned in one of his classic performances against Big Blue. It'll take some help to make the postseason, but should Philly get there, they are dangerous. Not many teams feature a one-two threat like McNabbulous and Westbrook, and if the two of them are in a groove, anything is possible.
Next up for Philly is a home game against Cleveland. Let's see if they can continue their winning ways.
4) Redskins (7-6)
The Washington clubhouse went haywire this week when Clinton Portis, the face of the Redskins, sarcastically called head coach Jim Zorn "a genius." I understand Portis' frustration. After he carried the team all year long, Zorn abandoned the ground game, and Portis, in the last two weeks (both losses). When Portis rushes for 100 yards, the team is 5-1; when he's heating the bench, Washington is 2-5.
With or without off-the-field problems, Washington won't make the playoffs, no matter what happens against the 1-11-1 Bengals in Cincinnati this week; there are simply too many teams ahead of them in the standings.