Hofstra community reacts to Politico poll
With the primary elections coming up next year, many Hofstra University students will be voting in a presidential election for the first time.
A poll from Politico released on Wednesday, Nov. 6, said, “56% of voters expect the president to be reelected next year, including 85% of Republicans and 51% of independents. By comparison, more than a third of Democrats (35%) say the same.”
“Polls are simply measurements of probability,“ said Carolyn Dudek, a professor of political science at Hofstra University. “If they are done correctly, then they are more reliable. However, the challenge is to look at poll numbers through the lens of the electoral college.“
Since some students at Hofstra University will be voting for the first time, they are focused on whether they think President Trump will be reelected in the 2020 election as well as their own role or impact in the election.
“I think that the likelihood of Trump getting reelected depends on who the Democratic candidate is,” said Cassidy Slamin, a sophomore video and television major. Slamin was an associate producer and live anchor for Hofstra Votes Live 2018, which covered the midterm elections nationwide. “Democrats have a very broad spectrum of candidates, but no strong leadership.”
“I think that if people want to see someone else in office, then they need to vote,” said Alexa Osner, a junior public policy major and the Student Services chair for the Student Government Association. “I want someone who genuinely cares about people and who has crafted legislation and policy that works in people's best interest.”
Some faculty members of the Department of Political Science agreed with the poll's prediction on how the election will play out.
“If the economy continues to do well, [President Trump] will be tough to beat, no matter the fact that he has had relatively low approval ratings in polls,” said Bernard Firestone, a professor of political science.
“Incumbent presidents enjoy many electoral advantages,” said Paul Fritz, an associate professor of political science who is the acting Associate Dean for Student Academic Affairs in the Hofstra College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. “Much of the vote depends on motivating the electoral base to get to polls, and even if President Trump is not all that popular with the general public, he still has a very strong base of support.”
Some students thought political polls are growing more inaccurate and misrepresent how Americans feel about political candidates.
“Most people won't answer calls or vote in internet polls,” Slamin said. “The people who do answer them are set in their beliefs and ideas.”
“I don't think that the polls are accurate,” said Alyssa Burke, a senior mass media studies major. “I think that they are very skewed because not everyone is a registered voter or votes.”
Faculty members from the Department of Political Science at Hofstra, on the other hand, feel that polls are generally accurate. However, Fritz emphasized that this is considering the margin of error, and his colleagues agreed.
“When the polls seem to miss an election prediction, as it appears [to have] occurred in 2016, there is an immediate impulse to say that they are unreliable. But polls always acknowledge that their results can vary within a range,” Firestone said.
“The polls were right when they predicted that a national sample showed voters favoring Clinton over Trump. She won the popular vote, as they predicted.”
